About
MANIFOLD
Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on politics, tech, sports, and more with play money. Or create your own prediction market on any topic you care about!
What is this?
Are our forecasts accurate?
Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability.
By using the combined wisdom of thousands of users, we outperform real-money platforms. For example, in the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all prediction markets and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance.
What are the odds?
What are the odds?
The odds are the chance that the event happens.
The odds are set by traders who have insight into the question weighted proportional to their confidence (bet size) and how correct they've been in the past (balance).
Why should I bet?
By betting, you can win prize points which are redeemable for real cash charity donations
Betting on questions provides accurate answers of important real, world questions.
Get started for free! No credit card required.